Global advertising spend is forecast to grow 11.9% to USD 1.34 trillion in 2026, despite consumer caution and geopolitical uncertainty, according to WARC Media’s latest Global Ad Spend Forecast update.

The report also points to a wide gap in advertising intensity across markets, with India’s forecast ad spend per capita at USD 13 in 2026, compared with USD 1,395 in the US.

The report draws on advertising spend data from 100 markets and more than two million data points covering macroeconomic conditions, media-owner revenues, advertiser marketing expenditure, media consumption and media cost inflation.

Performance channels drive growth

Social media, search and retail media remain the largest areas of ad investment, with the three channels expected to account for 66.4% of global ad spend in 2026. Their combined share is projected to reach 70% by 2028.

Social media is expected to see the strongest growth among major channels, while video-on-demand, retail media, search and digital out-of-home are also forecast to record double-digit increases.

The growth comes against a backdrop of continued consumer pressure and geopolitical uncertainty. WARC attributes the resilience of the advertising market partly to corporate investment in AI and major events including the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US mid-term elections.

AI reshapes where advertising goes

According to the report, AI is contributing to advertising growth through increased investment by technology companies, as well as greater use of AI for targeting, creative production and campaign optimisation.

The technology is also creating new advertising destinations. As generative search and AI assistants increasingly become entry points for product discovery and purchasing, WARC expects advertising investment to follow consumers into these environments.

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are forecast to account for 59.7% of global advertising spend excluding China in 2026, equivalent to USD 659.6 billion. Their combined share is expected to rise to 61.5%, or USD 804.1 billion, by 2028.

2027 growth expected to slow

Global ad spend growth is forecast to moderate to 8.4% in 2027, taking total investment to USD 1.46 trillion. WARC attributes the slowdown to tougher comparisons and a normalisation following several years of strong growth.

In 2028, global ad spend is expected to rise a further 7.9% to USD 1.57 trillion, making the market 2.3 times larger than it was in 2019.

Other key highlights of the report:

• Technology and electronics: Ad spend is forecast to grow 20.7%, making it the fastest-growing product category, with social media accounting for 40.2% of category spend.
• Travel and transport: Ad spend is forecast to rise 19.3%.
• Automotive: Ad spend is expected to grow 17.8%.
• Ad spend per capita: Forecast at USD 170 in China, USD 110 in Brazil, USD 935 in the UK and USD 850 in Austria in 2026.
• US: Ad spend per capita is forecast at USD 1,395 in 2026.
• Market size: Global advertising spend in 2028 is projected to be 2.3 times larger than in 2019.

Suzy Young, head - WARC Media Data, said, "These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others."